The Wizards' Crystal Ball

By Wes Bowers

If you are a somewhat optimistic Wizards fan that is looking forward to the 2022-2023 season (yes, I know that might be a rarity nowadays), then you are probably hoping for a rejuvenation of Kristaps Porzingis’ career in a Wizards jersey, the continued leaps from Kyle Kuzma and the on-court development of Rui Hachimura.

However, these intriguing players may not be in the team’s long-term plans when looking at their contracts. In fact, that scenario is a real possibility since both Porzingis and Kuzma are unrestricted free agents, and Hachimura is a restricted free agent in the 2023 off-season. I’m not trying to start a panic but decisions will have to be made next summer or maybe even earlier by the trade deadline. With General Manager Tommy Sheppard’s self-admitted reputation of not being afraid to take “big swings”, plus the extensive trade history the Wizards have with Sheppard running the show, you cannot rule out player movement in regards to these three players.

Now let’s see what the future could hold for each of these players…

1. Rui Hachimura

Twenty-four-year-old forward and Wizards’ 2019 first round pick Rui Hachimura is going into the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. If he doesn’t agree to an extension with the team before late October, like fellow 2019 draftee New York Knicks young star RJ Barrett just did, then he’ll be going into a contract year where he has a chance to prove his worth and hope to field more lucrative offers in restricted free agency when the season ends. Any possible extension for Rui would likely be a four-year deal ranging from $12-15 million annually.

When looking at Hachimura’s 2021-2022 campaign, where he missed the first 40 games of the season due to personal reasons, there are still questions about his game and fit with the current roster. “How much will he commit to team defense next season and improve his overall awareness on that end?” “How good is his self creation?” “Is he just a play finisher, a pick and roll/pop threat or can he be a go-to scoring option on an NBA team?” “Can he play himself into the starting small forward role even with his main position being the 4?”

But there was a positive in 2022 which came as a surprise to everyone: his 3-point shooting. In his rookie year, 2019-2020, he shot 29.7% on 1.8 attempts from 3. Then in the 2020-2021 season he made 32.8% of his threes on 2.4 attempts. Last season he shot a scorching 44.7%(!) from behind the arc, albeit on only 3 attempts per game. To expect him to shoot anywhere close to that mark next season seems a bit unfair, especially when opposing teams will not leave him open from downtown as much after that revelation. Scouting reports will most likely highlight that percentage. and defenses aren’t going to treat him like they did last year. With that being said, Rui’s progressing 3 ball is important in the Wizards’ attempt to recover from being the worst 3-point shooting team statistically last season.

2. Kyle Kuzma

When the Los Angeles Lakers gave a twenty-five-year-old Kyle Kuzma a three-year $40 million extension in late 2020, they were likely thinking he would continue to be a complementary stretch 4 to their championship winning duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They hoped he would get over his post-season shortcomings, while flashing the potential seen in his first couple of seasons. Fast forward almost two years after a breakout season with his new team, he’s the projected third option for the Wizards who are looking to shed mediocrity. Life comes at you fast in the NBA.

Speaking of that extension he signed with the Lakers, the last year of it was a $13 million player option for the 2023-2024 NBA season. I find it very unlikely that Kuzma accepts that player option as his current production is worth more than $13 million. He could sign a longer term deal with a higher annual salary. The only way I see him accepting his player option is a drastic drop in play or an extreme injury.

Kuzma is also extension eligible; the most he can be offered is ~$70 million over four years. To earn a sizable pay raise next summer, his needs are to improve finishing, increase overall efficiency and continue to grow as a secondary playmaker next to star shooting guard Bradley Beal.

3. Kristaps Porzingis

The 7′ 3″ Latvian has a much lower chance of becoming a 2023 free agent than the previous two players mentioned. Why? A fat $36 million player option to fall back on for the 2023-2024 season and a cloud of uncertainty around his health and play would be the main culprits.

Let’s look at his health first. KP played 51 games last season (34 with Dallas and 17 with Washington). It wasn’t one main injury that kept him out of 31 games. It was several minor, nagging injuries: a left knee contusion, lower back tightness, right toe soreness and a right knee bone bruise. The latter caused Porzingis to miss the last six games of his tenure with the Mavericks and his first eight with the Wizards. Seven footers and lower body injuries in most cases aren’t a good mix. On the bright side he did not suffer any injury while in a Washington jersey.

In those 17 games with the Wizards, Porzingis statistically played at an All-Star level. He averaged 22.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in just 28 minutes per contest – due to a minutes restriction. His efficiency also improved as he shot 47.5% from the field, 36.7% from 3 on 4.6 attempts (which is much better than the 28.3% on 5.1 attempts in Dallas) and a true shooting percentage of 60.6.

What caused this statistical improvement? It could have been that he was motivated to prove himself in a new situation or simply did not fit in the heliocentric offense built around Mavericks’ superstar Luka Doncic. One could say a 17 game sample size is too small to be relied on for projections.

What type of season does Porzingis have to achieve to earn a long term, near-max or max contract offer that would convince him to decline that hefty $36 million player option? The first thing is simple: prove he can stay healthy so paying him isn’t a risky investment. The goal should be to play at least 60 out of 82 regular season games (which he has not done since 2016-2017).

Secondly, as for his play, he will have to improve as an inside threat, continue to be respectable at the mid-range and from 3 where he provides a solid amount of spacing. His rim protection is already great, although he needs to work on his pick and roll defense and increase his mobility so he can be a serviceable switchable defender. At minimum, Porzingis will be coveted on the open market similar to Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner. Turner is a sturdy rim protector while also being a threat from outside that can provide spacing as a center, even though Turner’s 3 point percentage was below league average at 33%.

What does this mean for the Wizards and how do these players fit?

With all three Wizards most likely heading into a contract year there are some questions that come to mind. “Are they going to play the highest level they can because of a contract on the line?” “Will they sacrifice team success for individual success to make them seem worthy of a pay raise?” (They don’t seem like players who would do that.) There’s also the elephant in the room; Kuzma and Hachimura play the same position. We’ve seen little experimentation with one of them playing the 3 and the other staying at the 4. Does this mean Wizards management is going to have to make a tough decision by choosing one over the other?

That also brings us to the cap room situation. With Bradley Beal signing a supermax this off-season, he will be making north of $40 million per year for the next half-decade. So it begs the question, who can Washington afford? Newly acquired SG/SF Will Barton and his $14.3 million salary is expiring next year so that helps. As indicated earlier, some tough decisions will have to be made, not to mention the perspectives on these players could change drastically based on one season of play. Their inherent value could rise and fall in the most unpredictable ways.

Here’s a case for each player staying. Hachimura has the most untapped potential out of the three and would most likely cost the least. Also, the new Wizards cherry blossoms jersey might just be an equivalent of a no-trade clause exclusively for him this (thanks to @jazzfor3 for coming up with that one). Kuzma has proven to fit best playing off of Bradley Beal, a reliable and healthy starter with a two-way impact. A big plus – he is a fan-favorite after last season’s breakout year. Porzingis is the most talented and reputable star next to Bradley Beal and as the projected second option in the lineup, he has the clearest pathway to an All-Star caliber season.

All told, it will be interesting to see what these players can and might bring to the table. Which direction will the Wizards take when it comes to these three standout players?